red states turning blue
", Welcome to the Great Migration 2.0, one that may give the Democrats an electoral advantage that could last for generations to come. That's consistent with other recent election results in Texas, like Senator Ted Cruz squeaking by Beto O'Rourke in the closest Senate election in Texas since 1978. With November coming soon, policy wonks and pollsters remain undeterred as they come out of the woodwork to do what they do best: predict who will be the most powerful leader in the world. We've used the difference in which candidate people voted for president in 2000 and 2016 to gauge whether a state is getting redder or bluer. Figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show they make up 30 percent of the country's confirmed coronavirus patients. As former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams told the New York Times: "The Sun Belt expansion (by Democrats) is what will drive the next thirty years of elections. The Blue states are colonizing the big, electoral college rich Red states—and there's little those Red states, and the GOP, can do about it. President Donald Trump managed to edge Hillary Clinton by winning the closely contested swing states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. To understand what's really going on, we spoke to a dozen experts and dove deep into the data. In 2016, Republican support was just under 60%, at 59.3%. re: Red states that will eventually turn Blue? Posted by Buckeye Backer on 2/11/20 at 9:11 am to kingbob Yes, but due to aging populations and migration patterns, states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and maybe even NH or NJ could be turning red. But they're outnumbered by younger people who move to North Carolina urban areas for job opportunities. The trend is also taking shape in deep red Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, to name a few. Democrat Cal Cunningham is ahead in North Carolina in the U.S. Senate race. Since 2010, more people have moved out of California than moved in. Copied. The governors of Texas, Florida and Georgia have drawn controversy for their confusing patchwork of coronavirus policies. Political scientists believe the combination of millennials, African-Americans and Hispanics is a toxic mix for Republicans. Working with data provided by William H. Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of Diversity Explosion, we looked at twenty years of migration by state, and compared that to changes in presidential voting patterns using data from the website 270toWin. McKee and Teigen analyzed the 2008 and 2012 presidential election results in North Carolina by voter tabulation district (the voting equivalent of a precinct) and found that the single most important factor in predicting voting outcome was migration. Today, it's a purple state, voting for Obama in 2008, for Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016, who won 50 percent to 46 percent. But the X-factors were those from the Northeast. That's a solid majority, but it's only a fraction of the 13 point advantage Bush had in 2000. North Carolina redistricted following the 2010 elections after Republicans won a supermajority in both houses of the General Assembly. But as the Times noted, a number of red states (such as Idaho and South Carolina) are home to many blue state transplants yet continue to vote reliably Republican. In 2018 alone, over 86,000 residents moved from the Golden State to the Lone Star State, citing the lower cost of living, bigger houses and laid-back lifestyle. Accompanying the pandemic and its ensuing consequences is social chaos, notably the Black Lives Matter protests sweeping the country. All but 10 states 1 1 Plus one congressional district in Nebraska had voted consistently Democratic or Republican for (at least) the prior four consecutive presidential elections. Rae predicts that the white population will probably be a minority in 25-30 years, with ethnic minorities, particularly Latinos, growing across the country. "In 2030, ethnic minorities will account for a majority in Arizona," said Zhao, also a senior fellow for American Studies at Fudan University. Do it anyway. Real Clear Politics says the most recent Fox News poll (as of June 25) shows Biden up in all five states, but it's five months between that finding and the first Tuesday in November. You have New Yorkers who retired to Florida. North Carolina's migrants fall in-between—older than blue Virginia's, but younger than red South Carolina's. Tippett has prepared a forecast of North Carolina demographics through 2035. Take a look at Los Angeles. We confirmed that using numbers provided by Brooking's Frey. Sabrina Pendergrass, assistant professor of African American Studies at the University of Virginia, says Atlanta has more African-American newcomers than any other city. "In many red states like Florida and Texas, state budgets mainly come from sales tax, which has sharply dived off because of the pandemic. Swapping the Rust Belt for the Sun Belt is a bad deal for Republicans—46 votes from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan for 109 (North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas.). Overall, 27 states turned redder and 23 plus the District of Columbia turned bluer since 2000. Worryingly for Republicans, these new arrivals have brought their voting habits and blue policies with them. Republicans are starting to lose at the state level. In 2018, 274,000 people moved in and 180,000 people moved out, for a gain of 94,000. The gender gap is old news. As blue voters leave that's helped turn states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan redder. That kind of puts President Donald Trump in a gridlock because he can't sympathize so much without losing his white working-class base. 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